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A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."