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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement receives the award. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

But the current race is distinctly different. The pool of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a typical season, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him only one spot ahead of peers.

Still